Oral blanc de préparation à l'épreuve de SES au bac européen
Classe de première ES


Preparation : 20 minutes
Oral exam : 10 minutes, 6-7 minutes to answer the question, and 3-4 minutes for discussion.

Using the document and your knowledge, make a structured answer to the following question, you must use examples studied in class.

Subject :

Are the effects of a rise in oil prices the same nowadays
than they used to be before?

 

It seems that oil-price shocks are less shocking than they used to be…
Could the bad old days of stagflation be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December and its highest since the Gulf war in 1991. This near-tripling of oil prices evokes scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-8o, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global recession. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?
(…)
Moreover, in most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. in Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973.
(…)
The impact on the output of oil-importing countries also depends on whether oil producers save or spend their windfalls. Both in 1973 and 1979 many OPEC countries already had current-account surpluses, and most of their extra oil revenues were saved. Today, many have large current-account deficits (Saudi Arabia's hit 10% Of GDP last year). Cash-strapped producers are more likely to spend their windfalls on imports from rich countries.
(…)
Even if the impact will be more modest than in the past, dearer oil will still leave some mark. Inflation will be higher and output lower than they would be otherwise. (…)
The impact of higher oil prices varies by country too(…).
The Economist, November 27th 1999